Israelis Cast Ballots in First Post-War Knesset Election

Israel holds its first national legislative election since the October 2023 attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza. The vote on Tuesday will determine the composition of the 120-seat Knesset and the direction of a government facing internal divisions and international scrutiny.

Two main coalitions compete for control. The pro-Netanyahu bloc includes the Likud party, along with United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition alliance consists of four Jewish-led movements: Yashar, Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance. Both sides must clear a 3.25 percent threshold to enter parliament.

Recent surveys conducted before a publication ban took effect on Friday indicate that neither side will secure the 61 seats needed for a majority. A KAN poll projected 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu's bloc. The remaining seats are expected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the Arab-majority lists Ra'am and the Joint List. Because both major blocs have ruled out partnering with Arab-led parties, coalition negotiations may be difficult, potentially leading to a minority government or a repeat election.

Domestic issues drive voter sentiment. Citizens seek accountability for security failures prior to the 2023 attacks and object to the military exemption enjoyed by the ultra-Orthodox community. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that secular and liberal factions view this election as the last chance to save Israeli democracy. Critics also cite Netanyahu's judicial reform attempts as a weakening of the liberal democratic order.

International relations have also shifted. Several allies have sanctioned illegal settlements in the West Bank, while many countries have condemned continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. At the UN General Assembly in September, dozens of envoys walked out during Netanyahu's address, some jeering and booing. The election also affects the prospects of an inquiry into the 2023 attacks and Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial, which has been pending since 2019.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces a potential prison sentence if convicted in his trial and is subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes. He has portrayed his rivals as likely partners of Arab parties, claiming only Likud can prevent such an alliance.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polling suggests turnout in that community could reach 60 percent, which would allow Arab parties to win up to 15 seats. The Central Elections Committee previously voted to bar the Joint List and Ra'am, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision. The court did remove Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race over a comment describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.