Israel Votes as Right-Wing Shift Deepens

Israeli voters head to the polls on Tuesday to settle a contest that defines the country’s political future. The election marks the first vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza. It also follows a wider conflict that saw Israel strike targets in Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Qatar.

The stakes are high for Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving prime minister. He seeks to extend his tenure after leading a governing coalition composed of far-right ultranationalists and ultra-Orthodox parties. Netanyahu faces a self-styled Zionist opposition bloc that has embraced a right-wing approach to national challenges.

The campaign focused on accountability for alleged security failures and disputes over ultra-Orthodox military service. Efforts to exclude Arab-led parties also dominated the debate. These factors dampened expectations that the vote would improve the lives of Palestinians. Deadly attacks continue almost daily in Gaza despite a yearlong ceasefire, while settler violence and army raids have intensified in the West Bank.

Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani, an Israeli sociologist, told Al Jazeera that the political system operates within a framework of Jewish supremacy. He stated that no leaders presenting themselves as alternatives to Netanyahu can be described as left-wing. He argued that the current reality is rooted in Zionist political thought rather than being the product of one individual or faction.

The shift to the right accelerated under the current government. Analysts point to attempts to strip the Supreme Court of its power to review government actions. The government also flouted rulings on the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox minority. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich provided crucial support for the judicial overhaul launched in early 2023.

Both ministers have also provided cover for the surge in violence in the West Bank. They have deflected attempts to hold the coalition accountable for the security failures preceding the Hamas-led attack. Netanyahu, who is on trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, denies the charges. He is also wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Gaza.

Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, noted that a new prime minister would likely change the domestic atmosphere. He described Netanyahu as a deeply divisive figure who is viewed with reverence by some and intense hatred by others. Bregman warned that any new government will reflect the sharp rightward turn Israel experienced after October 7.

Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, framed the vote as a decision on whether Israel remains a functioning democracy or a democracy in name only. He identified the choice as being between maintaining the occupation of the West Bank or annexing it entirely. He noted that government figures have suggested the population’s voluntary migration from the territory.

More than 74,000 people have been killed in Gaza. The conflict has also choked key energy routes and left global markets reeling. None of the mainstream candidates have talked about including Arab-led parties in a potential coalition. In popular media, references to the leaders of Ra’am or the Joint List are typically used by rival candidates to denounce each other.

Shenhav-Shahrabani said ultra-Orthodox parties would remain in government regardless of the outcome. He argued that the Arab-led parties, which represent one-fifth of the total population, would be excluded by a system built on prejudice. Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, stated that the treatment of Palestinians is a consensus among Zionist parties. He added that differences among them rest on whether the state or settler militias should take the lead in that role.