Return of 70,000 Israelis Could Decide Knesset Election

An estimated 70,000 Israelis residing abroad have returned to Israel or are scheduled to arrive before Tuesday's Knesset elections. While no official count exists, this group holds the potential to determine the winner in a tightly contested race. The volume of returning voters is enough to alter the seat allocation if the margin between political blocs remains narrow.

Winning a single seat in the Knesset requires a substantial vote share. During the 2022 election, candidates needed approximately 36,000 votes to secure one seat. Analysts expect the threshold to rise this time due to population growth and higher anticipated turnout. The required number of votes may climb to between 38,000 and 39,000.

Predicting where these returning voters will cast their ballots is difficult. Some estimates suggest a portion will support the change bloc, but no reliable data confirms their political leanings. Even if 60% of the 70,000 individuals backed that bloc, the result would add at most one to one and a half seats. The final tally will reveal whether this demographic shifted the balance of power.

The influx of travelers is visible in the hospitality sector. Many visitors are combining family reunions and vacations with Election Day. A large number stay with relatives, friends, or in their own vacant apartments. However, hotel occupancy rates have risen noticeably in areas with high tourist traffic.

Africa Israel Hotels reported a 23% increase in occupancy for the week of the election compared to October of last year. Alex Eliyahu, the chain's marketing director, noted that more Israelis are choosing to pair "exercising their democratic right with a short vacation." The comparison to the previous year is complicated by the security situation, but the rise remains distinct.

Fattal Hotels also saw higher bookings, particularly in central Israel. Maya Shalev, the company's vice president of marketing and sales, stated that reservations are up compared to the same period last year, "apparently due to the elections." To encourage travel, the chain is offering discounts of up to 30% and an additional 10% for members of its loyalty club from October 25 to 29. She added that bookings from abroad for these specific dates suggest residents are returning primarily to vote.

Several returnees made the trip after attending the October Council rally at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. Judy, a resident of Miami for more than 50 years, flew in to vote and plans to return to the United States in early November. She said, "Many Israelis living in Miami and Los Angeles tend to vote for the Right. I'm different, and I'm not alone." Ofer, who traveled from New York, said his family flew in specifically to participate in the election and will leave the day after voting. Nurit, from the South Sharon area, arrived with her son-in-law and 18-year-old grandson from Canada, who is voting for the first time. Zehava, another visitor from New York, said she plans to vote for Likud and had planned her visit in advance.

Logistical challenges prevented some from returning. Flydubai canceled flights following an attempted terrorist attack, stranding some Israelis abroad. One young man said the cancellations caused flight prices to the Far East to spike. Conversely, some Israelis currently living in the country are abroad on Election Day. Racheli, from Ramat Gan, booked a vacation in Vietnam with her husband nearly a year ago, before the election date was set. She said, "This will be the first time I don't vote. It breaks my heart," adding that it is a shame Israelis traveling abroad cannot vote on Election Day.